A major modelling study published this year warns that rising temperatures will cause a sharp rise in temperature-related deaths across Europe, with heat-related fatalities far outstripping any lives saved by milder winters — amounting to as many as 2.3 million additional deaths across 854 European cities by 2099 if greenhouse-gas emissions continue on current trajectories.
The research, led by the Environment & Health Modelling Lab at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, tested multiple climate and adaptation scenarios and found the increase in heat-related mortality holds true even when cities implement strong adaptation measures such as improved early-warning systems and better access to cooling. The authors concluded that adaptation alone will not compensate for the scale of warming expected without steep emission cuts.
Southern and central Europe — including major Mediterranean cities — are predicted to bear the heaviest burden, with researchers pointing to the combination of high exposure, aging populations and limited capacity to adapt in many urban areas. Northern Europe could see modest reductions in cold-related deaths, but these are unlikely to offset rising heat fatalities.
The study’s projections are grounded in city-level climate and demographic models and account for varying degrees of heat adaptation; under worst-case warming scenarios, annual heat deaths could rise dramatically by the end of the century. Scientists behind the work called the findings “a stark warning” that urgent, large-scale mitigation of emissions is required to avoid the worst outcomes.
Public-health experts say the findings mirror recent trends: Europe has already experienced deadly heat seasons in recent years, with independent analyses estimating tens of thousands of excess heat deaths in 2023 alone — a pattern expected to worsen without rapid climate action and expanded protection for the most vulnerable.
Policymakers and city planners face a dual challenge, the study’s authors say: accelerate emissions cuts to limit warming while urgently scaling up heat adaptation — from urban greening and cooling centers to resilient health services — to reduce near-term harm as long-term solutions are pursued.
